Fantasy Football 2014 Pre-view - Running Backs I will avoid! - Redraft League

     While everyone is arguing over who they think should be drafted in the top 10, I tend to look a little further down the list.  We can generally agree on who the studs are so instead of marking up my list with guys I want, I'll start marking off guys I DO NOT want.  A little research before hand will save you some headache and scrambling on draft day.  The first few rounds of most drafts are usually the quickest, by the time you get done crossing a name off your list, 2 other picks have come in.  Owners will have it set in their mind who they want first, even if it's a reach.  I will go into draft day knowing who I will not be drafting.  This post will focus on the Running Backs.

     Running Backs (RB) are huge assets to fantasy teams.  They score TDs, rack up lots of yardage and in some cases catch a lot of passes.  They can also be a huge disappointment.  Ever have one of your top picks leave a game early on because of injury?  Only to hand you a loss by just a few points that he would have surly landed you?  I usually won't hold a grudge but when this happens time and time again, I have to, at some point, tell my self, not only never again this season but never again in ANY season.  It doesn't have to be an injury.  It can be another running back on the same team that will steal carries and TDs.  I'm looking at you Buffalo!  I started this last season.  I went through my list and crossed off names that I wanted to avoid in the head spinning confusion that is Draft Day.  It helped me out a lot down the stretch, when talent starts getting scarce and you might reach for a name simply because you know who that guy is.  This list is nothing personal, they might have a good or even great season but either I have been burned or saw other owners get burned by these guys.  I am all including in this list guys that I just don't think will have a good year, based on team change or injury prone or just flat out not that good.

Zac Stacy - Rams.  He came in and had a pretty good run at things for the Rams.  But look at maybe why that was.  One of their main offensive players, Sam Bradford, was lost for the season with a knee injury.  They HAD to run the ball.  So they did.  Now, Bradford is back and healthy.  I just don't see them needing to run as much as they did last year.  He might have a decent year but I'm not willing to take a chance.

Doug Martin - Bucs.  He had a monster rookie season.  Then turned in a lot of bad games last year and he was getting injured.  Looking back, his big games were against just 2 or 3 teams, he was not very consistent.  The Bucs have upgraded their QB situation and have added more weapons on offense.  Plus, the coach came out and said they want to go to a committee at RB (not always but usually a death nail for RBs).  Having a better offence might open up running lanes for him, but what if they don't give him enough chances?  Not a gamble for me.

C.J. Spiller - Bills.  He always starts every season with a huge upside.  Coaches say they want to give him the ball more, he's a huge play maker, he's all these things....but they also signed Fred Jackson to a new contract.  I would consider drafting Spiller, but Jackson is a big reason why I won't.  Sure, he's gets his share of chances and he does have good games but it's hard to argue when Jackson comes in and scores 2 TDs and has 100 yards when Spiller only gets a few runs and catches a couple passes.  They seam to go back and forth a lot.  I can't draft a guy knowing it's 50/50 each week. 

Any RB from New England because of Belichick.  I can't loose points for a full game just because of one mistake. 

Any RB from New Orleans.  When you have Drew Brees, running is an after thought.  Any one of 3 guys could be their starter on any given week.  I won't keep a roster spot open for a guy that might not even get a chance to run. 

Ray Rice - Ravens.  Not even counting his 2 game suspension to start this season, I just don't trust him anymore.  The Ravens used to have a very good running game and Rice was one of the best and also caught a huge amount of passes.  Last year, that all went away.  Many blame the bad Offensive Line.  I'm not sure they can go from almost worst to almost first in one off season.  I'm just going to let him be a problem for someone else. 

Any RB from the Panthers.  They have several guys that will put up good numbers but it will most likely be a different guy each week.  Not to mention a QB that will steal yards and TDs.  nah, not for me.

That's about it.  Nothing against any of these players, personally, but our Championship game came down to the last minute.  Points are hard to come by for anyone but especially those who aren't given a good enough chance.  I'll let other owners roll the dice on these guys. 

Fantasy Football Redraft League

Fantasy Football Redraft League Summery

     The Redraft League is always exciting.  You can start fresh every year.  The moment you get the draft order you spend the rest of the time preparing for your perfect picks.  You get everything lined up, your research on each player you want, injury and hold out reports, stat projections and opinions from fantasy footballers from around the country.  Then the draft starts and you throw all that hard work out the window....  Oh yeah, and 5 minutes before the first pick we decided to add a flex position for the first time ever.

     My name got pulled out of the hat for the 8th overall pick.  We do a snake draft, so my first 2 picks would be the 8th and 13th overall.  Important because between my next pick, there would be more than a dozen players drafted.  Our league is pretty basic as far as scoring.  You have to decide what position you want to load up on.  If you try to spread the picks around you can end up one good player and a bunch of duds around each position.  Not every star player will put up home run numbers every week.  I try to draft players that will be consistent and get me points every week and give me a chance to win games.  Which positions are thin or have the steepest drop off?  All this comes into play once the draft starts and owners start making their picks.  You can never predict what will happen in our league.  In most leagues, running backs will come off the board before other positions.  Out of our first 5 picks, 3 of them were quarter backs.  By the time my first pick came around, the second highest rated running back was still available.  Totally catching me off guard and throwing my draft strategy in the toilet...again.  So, of course, when my second pick came around, another high ranked running back was still available. 

     Knowing that there are a lot of really good quarterbacks right now, I could wait and pick up a really good one and not have to spent a first or second round pick on one.  I took a QB with my 3rd pick.  Didn't get the top guy on my list, but I'm happy with what I got.  I took a rookie running back with my next pick.  Rookies don't usually play a big role in our league, but this guy already won the starting role on his team and starting running backs can be great when they get most of the work load. 

     Out of the first 4 picks I got 3 starting running backs and a top rated QB.  Time to grab some pass catchers.  This means wide receivers and tight ends.  I try to target guys on pass heavy teams and guys that get thrown to a ton.  Guys listed as a #1 or #2 on a team are at a premium.  My next 4 picks were all pass catchers.  3 #1 wide receivers and a #2 tight end.  Not too shabby. 

     After having the basic building blocks for my team I wanted to load up on players that will have potential for the coming year.  I decided to grab, what I figured, was the best available at the wide receiver and running back positions for the next few picks.  That paid off with a few more rookies and #1 wide receivers.  I'm not one to draft many back up positions for my team.  I think a back up QB is the only one I target.  Anything else I will pick up scraps off the waiver wire if I need to.  I picked up a back up QB who just won the starting gig on his team.  He can pass and run, but I will only use him for a bye week. 

     During the late rounds of any draft, you get to a point when you have your starters and just want to take a few chances.  Here you can also take players you don't want or need, but you know other teams need them.  Sure, you might have 5 wide receivers already.  But you look at the draft board and see the guys drafting around you still need them.  I am not above snaking a good position player and sitting him on my bench.  This league, you can trade, but I cannot remember if there has ever been a trade.  If my starters can score a bunch of points for me and I leave a bunch of points on the bench, that's less points for my opponents to have.  There are only so many yards and touch downs and if I can keep a few away from other teams every week, I sure as heck will!

     I'll do a quick run down of my team for this league, I will list them in the order drafted and provide a short reason for the pick.  Let me know what you think.  Any mistakes?  Keep in mind, the first 3 players off the board were the top 3 quarter backs.  Our starting line ups need to have 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE 1 FLEX, 1 K and 1 DEF.  Don't mind my spelling of first names.

#1 - RB Ray Rice.  I was very surprised to have him at this pick.  The Ravens do pass but not a ton and Rice does catch a bunch of those passes.  He will get a lot of yards and TDs.  He is a star player and not only a #1 RB but probably the best offensive player on his team.

#2 - RB Demarco Murray.  Again, having the chance to grab another top RB, this was a no brainer for me.  Murray might have a slight injury risk but I think the positives will out weigh the negatives with this pick.  He will run to a bunch of yards and TDs.  The Cowboys will score a bunch and Murray will be a big part of that.

#3 - QB Matt Ryan.  I think the Falcons are going to be a really good team this year.  Their receivers getting better and better, Ryan will be throwing passes all day long.  It won't matter to me who catches them.  Ryan will be a top rates QB this year. 

#4 - RB Doug Martin.  This rookie has already won the starting role for the Bucks.  They do have a good QB, but I believe they will be a run first team.  Martin can run and catch.  He will most likely be used at least 50/50, if not more.  Ton of upside with this pick.  Might have another Ray Rice here. 

#5 - WR Percy Harvin.  The Vikings will be a little better than they were last year, but not much.  Harvin has potential to be the #1 player on this team.  He will catch a lot of passes and he plays a big role in the running game.  With Peterson recovering from a major injury, I believe they will lean on Harvin early and often. 

#6 - TE Aaron Hernandez.  He might be the #2 tight end on his team but that is more than enough for a #1 on any other team.  He will play a big role and get his catches.  We have to start a tight end and I hate having one that only catches 1 or 2 passes a week.  Good pick here.

#7 - WR Antonio Brown.  The Steelers can and will throw the ball, especially with their #1 RB on the shelf for atleast the first half of the season.  Mike Wallace is a drama queen.  Brown will catch a lot of passes in this offence.  Even if he stays as the #2 on this team, he will get a lot of chances to score.  Good upside.

#8 - WR Jeremy Maclin.  He had a bad illness to start last season and battled a leg injury late in the year.  Even with that, he had better stats then (another drama queen) Jackson.  He should be the #1 receiver on the Eagles this year.  Vick should be throwing more to try and stay healthy (HA) and that will help Maclin's upside a ton.

#9 - RB Kevin Smith.  Someone has to start a RB for the Lions and Smith will be that guy, at least for a while.  The lions are turning into a pass first team, but they also run the ball a lot.  Smith has potential if he can stay healthy.  I really only picked him up because he will be a starter on a good team.  With my other top picks, I might not start him.  But you never know.  My first big upside and big injury risk pick.  A starting running back on my bench is one less I'll have to worry about other owners starting.

#10 - WR Pierre Garcon.  I took a chance here.  Garcon should be the go to WR for the Redskins.  I repeat, for the Redskins.  Not known as a top offence.  BUT, with their new rookie QB that will take a lot of heat from defences, that could open up the field for the wide outs.  His upside will depend totally on what Griffin can bring to the table.  Griffin can throw and when he does, hopefully Garcon will be the guy.

#11 - RB David Wilson.  Took a rookie RB here.  He will be the Giants #2, but if history has taught us anything is that the Giants use 2 running backs to great effect.  He has huge potential here.  By a show of hands, who here thinks Bradshaw will stay healthy and start every game this year?  Didn't think so.  Not if, but when Bradshaw misses time, Wilson will step up and be the #1.  Big upside. 

#12 - WR Justin Blackmon.  I took another WR on a team that typically does not have a very good offence.  But this rookie has plenty of upside.  Jags second year QB should improve a lot and they run the ball first.  Blackmon is a play maker that should end up as the #1 on this team.  He might not see much of the field for my team but I'm taking a chance here.  With picks in the late rounds, you are not getting too many #1's anyways.  I feel just OK about this pick. 

#13 - K Sebastian Janikowski.  I only draft 1 kicker so I try to take a good one.  The Raiders have potential but they always do almost nothing with it.  Old QB, fragile starting RB.  I see a lot of unfinished drives ending with lots of field goals.  He is accurate and can kick far.  It adds up for me.  Other owners started grabbing kickers at this point.  I didn't want to end up with a guy that only gets PATs. 

#14 - DEF Green Bay.  Everyone knows that the Packers offence is the star of the show and the defence was bad last year.  But in this league we don't get a penalty for giving up points or yards.  The Packers get lots of take aways and should be a lot better at getting sacks this year.  With Cobb returning kicks they have a lot of potential for scoring.  With the average DEF scoring around 5 or 6 points a week, I like the upside here.

#15 - WR Randall Cobb.  I know that the Packers are a pass first team, but the main reason I took Cobb here was for his special teams upside that will also count towards the DEF scoring.  He won't get a huge amount of passes thrown his way so he might not see much of the field for my team.  But who knows?  The potential is there.  He will be a bench warmer for now. 

#16 - QB Jake Locker.  The QB position is usually the only one I will draft a back up for.  The Titans named Locker their starter already.  He can run and throw so he can rack up points for fantasy teams.  He won't come close to Matt Ryan type scoring, but I don't need him to.  He will average a few points less every week, but for a bye week fill in, what more can you ask for?  I don't see Ryan getting hurt but if he does, I feel I have a very nice back up plan.