Fantasy Football 2014 Pre-view - Running Backs I will avoid! - Redraft League

     While everyone is arguing over who they think should be drafted in the top 10, I tend to look a little further down the list.  We can generally agree on who the studs are so instead of marking up my list with guys I want, I'll start marking off guys I DO NOT want.  A little research before hand will save you some headache and scrambling on draft day.  The first few rounds of most drafts are usually the quickest, by the time you get done crossing a name off your list, 2 other picks have come in.  Owners will have it set in their mind who they want first, even if it's a reach.  I will go into draft day knowing who I will not be drafting.  This post will focus on the Running Backs.

     Running Backs (RB) are huge assets to fantasy teams.  They score TDs, rack up lots of yardage and in some cases catch a lot of passes.  They can also be a huge disappointment.  Ever have one of your top picks leave a game early on because of injury?  Only to hand you a loss by just a few points that he would have surly landed you?  I usually won't hold a grudge but when this happens time and time again, I have to, at some point, tell my self, not only never again this season but never again in ANY season.  It doesn't have to be an injury.  It can be another running back on the same team that will steal carries and TDs.  I'm looking at you Buffalo!  I started this last season.  I went through my list and crossed off names that I wanted to avoid in the head spinning confusion that is Draft Day.  It helped me out a lot down the stretch, when talent starts getting scarce and you might reach for a name simply because you know who that guy is.  This list is nothing personal, they might have a good or even great season but either I have been burned or saw other owners get burned by these guys.  I am all including in this list guys that I just don't think will have a good year, based on team change or injury prone or just flat out not that good.

Zac Stacy - Rams.  He came in and had a pretty good run at things for the Rams.  But look at maybe why that was.  One of their main offensive players, Sam Bradford, was lost for the season with a knee injury.  They HAD to run the ball.  So they did.  Now, Bradford is back and healthy.  I just don't see them needing to run as much as they did last year.  He might have a decent year but I'm not willing to take a chance.

Doug Martin - Bucs.  He had a monster rookie season.  Then turned in a lot of bad games last year and he was getting injured.  Looking back, his big games were against just 2 or 3 teams, he was not very consistent.  The Bucs have upgraded their QB situation and have added more weapons on offense.  Plus, the coach came out and said they want to go to a committee at RB (not always but usually a death nail for RBs).  Having a better offence might open up running lanes for him, but what if they don't give him enough chances?  Not a gamble for me.

C.J. Spiller - Bills.  He always starts every season with a huge upside.  Coaches say they want to give him the ball more, he's a huge play maker, he's all these things....but they also signed Fred Jackson to a new contract.  I would consider drafting Spiller, but Jackson is a big reason why I won't.  Sure, he's gets his share of chances and he does have good games but it's hard to argue when Jackson comes in and scores 2 TDs and has 100 yards when Spiller only gets a few runs and catches a couple passes.  They seam to go back and forth a lot.  I can't draft a guy knowing it's 50/50 each week. 

Any RB from New England because of Belichick.  I can't loose points for a full game just because of one mistake. 

Any RB from New Orleans.  When you have Drew Brees, running is an after thought.  Any one of 3 guys could be their starter on any given week.  I won't keep a roster spot open for a guy that might not even get a chance to run. 

Ray Rice - Ravens.  Not even counting his 2 game suspension to start this season, I just don't trust him anymore.  The Ravens used to have a very good running game and Rice was one of the best and also caught a huge amount of passes.  Last year, that all went away.  Many blame the bad Offensive Line.  I'm not sure they can go from almost worst to almost first in one off season.  I'm just going to let him be a problem for someone else. 

Any RB from the Panthers.  They have several guys that will put up good numbers but it will most likely be a different guy each week.  Not to mention a QB that will steal yards and TDs.  nah, not for me.

That's about it.  Nothing against any of these players, personally, but our Championship game came down to the last minute.  Points are hard to come by for anyone but especially those who aren't given a good enough chance.  I'll let other owners roll the dice on these guys. 

Fantasy Football Week 4 Review

Redraft League - Standard Scoring

Week 4 Result - Loss

Score  49-55

Record 2-2

Power Ranking 6th

     Losing sucks but losing by only 6 points sucks even more.  Bye weeks are here and I always do the same thing, I wait until the last minute to try and get them covered.  This week my TE was on bye - Finley.  I picked up a TE that didn't look too bad - Fauria from the Lions.  I did no research on this guy, I just saw he was available and on a team that throw a lot so I grabbed him and started him.  I could have just started Finley this week, they scored the same.....

     Not really sure what is going on with my running backs now.  I think I'll have to keep MJD on the bench - he scored me a 1.  I left Spiller on the bench this week but that wouldn't have mattered as he only put up 3 points.  I would hate to start benching these guys on a regular basis but until they start playing better I won't have a choice.  I have to start Spiller this week, as of right now he's a game time decision and he plays Thursday night.  I feel good about my other running backs.  I have Eddie Lacey off a bye week and he will start this week.  Le'Veon Bell will be another starter for me this week.  I did not know how the Steelers would use him last week, being his first NFL game ever.  I left 15 points on the bench.  I knew he would be their bell cow I just didn't know it would start in his first game. 

      Luck had a good game.  He's playing against the Seahawks in Seattle this week, I won't expect much.  I have to start Hilton this week to cover a bye.  He hasn't done much yet and against Seattle, I'll expect even less.  Most of my better players are all of a sudden playing defenses that are getting better.  I'm not throwing in the towel this week, but with all my matchups and my opponent being the 1st ranked team in the league and undefeated.....I don't like my chances but stranger things have happened. 


Keeper League

Week 4 Result - Win

Score  147.67 - 112.70

Record  3-1

Power Ranking 2nd

     Had a really good game.  I was a little worried about having Stafford cover Rodger's bye week.  Stafford had been playing good but he had a bad game, only putting up 12 points.  My opponent started Russell Wilson who had a down game also just getting 12 points.  My lowest score of the day came with Josh Gordon with 9.  My idea of trading around a few players to get a few with higher score projections paid off.  I grabbed the Titans D, which put up 27.  Started Woodhead who had a great game with 23. 

     Had good games from my RBs this week.  I was helped with the other team starting McFadden who only scored 2 before getting hurt.  Lynch put up 19.  He should have a good game this week at home against the Colts. 

     Looking ahead to next week.  I get Rodgers back, I loose Garcon and Brown to bye weeks.  My opponent looses Adrian Peterson to a bye week.  He has 3 starters on bye this week so I'm hoping to take advantage.  The guy I'm playing against is ranked 3rd and is also 3-1 and on a 3 game winning streak.  Rodgers playing at home against the Lions, I'm hoping for a shoot out.  I'm also looking for some good points out of my new waiver wire pick up, Alshon Jeffery from the Bears.  He's been getting a ton of targets the last few weeks and the Bears playing against the Saints - I'm hoping the Bears fall behind early and have to throw a ton.  Nice upside with him.  Starting Justin Blackmon also.  Not too excited but he is a big weapon for them and is fresh after serving a 4 game suspension.  Probably not going to have a first game like Gordon had a few weeks ago.....I'll settle for half of those points.  Starting the Titans D against the Chiefs.  Has the makings of a defensive battle, low scoring and not a lot of yards given up on either side.  Smells like points for me.

NFL Fantasy Football Week1 Review

     Dedraft League: Week 1
     Loss 64-94
     0-1

Stunk up the league this week.  Got very little production out of some big names.  Granted, there were a lot of really good games against tough defenses in week 1 so I'm not too concerned about future games.  Between Spiller and MJD I only got 4 points.  Ouch.  I can't feel too bad though.  I put up the best team I could.  The only exception was Eddie Lacey from Green Bay.  He actually had a good day.  But that would not have helped. I was out scored big time.  Adding in Lacey's 9 point game would not have made a dent.  Not much else to say about this team at the moment.  No one got hurt and everyone has better match ups this week.  Hoping for some bounce back performances from most of my running backs. 



     Keeper League: Week 1
     Loss 124.08 - 133.30
     0-1

Fared a little better but still not enough to pull off the win.  Going into Monday night, I needed good games from both Garcon and DeShawn.  Got the good game from DeShawn.  I figured that if I could get 100 yards and a TD from each guy I could win.  I was getting mad at the Redskins as they fell behind and kept rushing the ball.  I got some horrible games from my running backs.  Lynch faced a tough game and only got me 6 points.  Ingram only got 1.  That hurt.  I think I'll start Mendenhall this week.  He didn't have a great game last week, but he's still the main guy in that backfield and I feel better with him over Ivory and Ingram.  I wasn't expecting much from my rookies and didn't get much.  Michaels got nothing and Patterson was only used on a few passing plays and he ran back a few kicks so he was able to get a few points.  I'm hoping Patterson gets more playing time soon.  I don't feel too excited to be starting Davis but he did have a good game against Green Bay and should do well as teams are now aware of how they will be using Boldin. 

My opponent had a great game from Cruz this week.  If he had even half his points I would have won. It's not every week he will score 3 touchdowns.   My teams don't score a ton of points so it's a matter of trying to have good match ups and have the other team hit a snag somewhere.  My philosophy has been start who I have and hope the other team just sucks this week.  Hooray!