Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Fantasy Football 2014 Pre-view - Running Backs I will avoid! - Redraft League

     While everyone is arguing over who they think should be drafted in the top 10, I tend to look a little further down the list.  We can generally agree on who the studs are so instead of marking up my list with guys I want, I'll start marking off guys I DO NOT want.  A little research before hand will save you some headache and scrambling on draft day.  The first few rounds of most drafts are usually the quickest, by the time you get done crossing a name off your list, 2 other picks have come in.  Owners will have it set in their mind who they want first, even if it's a reach.  I will go into draft day knowing who I will not be drafting.  This post will focus on the Running Backs.

     Running Backs (RB) are huge assets to fantasy teams.  They score TDs, rack up lots of yardage and in some cases catch a lot of passes.  They can also be a huge disappointment.  Ever have one of your top picks leave a game early on because of injury?  Only to hand you a loss by just a few points that he would have surly landed you?  I usually won't hold a grudge but when this happens time and time again, I have to, at some point, tell my self, not only never again this season but never again in ANY season.  It doesn't have to be an injury.  It can be another running back on the same team that will steal carries and TDs.  I'm looking at you Buffalo!  I started this last season.  I went through my list and crossed off names that I wanted to avoid in the head spinning confusion that is Draft Day.  It helped me out a lot down the stretch, when talent starts getting scarce and you might reach for a name simply because you know who that guy is.  This list is nothing personal, they might have a good or even great season but either I have been burned or saw other owners get burned by these guys.  I am all including in this list guys that I just don't think will have a good year, based on team change or injury prone or just flat out not that good.

Zac Stacy - Rams.  He came in and had a pretty good run at things for the Rams.  But look at maybe why that was.  One of their main offensive players, Sam Bradford, was lost for the season with a knee injury.  They HAD to run the ball.  So they did.  Now, Bradford is back and healthy.  I just don't see them needing to run as much as they did last year.  He might have a decent year but I'm not willing to take a chance.

Doug Martin - Bucs.  He had a monster rookie season.  Then turned in a lot of bad games last year and he was getting injured.  Looking back, his big games were against just 2 or 3 teams, he was not very consistent.  The Bucs have upgraded their QB situation and have added more weapons on offense.  Plus, the coach came out and said they want to go to a committee at RB (not always but usually a death nail for RBs).  Having a better offence might open up running lanes for him, but what if they don't give him enough chances?  Not a gamble for me.

C.J. Spiller - Bills.  He always starts every season with a huge upside.  Coaches say they want to give him the ball more, he's a huge play maker, he's all these things....but they also signed Fred Jackson to a new contract.  I would consider drafting Spiller, but Jackson is a big reason why I won't.  Sure, he's gets his share of chances and he does have good games but it's hard to argue when Jackson comes in and scores 2 TDs and has 100 yards when Spiller only gets a few runs and catches a couple passes.  They seam to go back and forth a lot.  I can't draft a guy knowing it's 50/50 each week. 

Any RB from New England because of Belichick.  I can't loose points for a full game just because of one mistake. 

Any RB from New Orleans.  When you have Drew Brees, running is an after thought.  Any one of 3 guys could be their starter on any given week.  I won't keep a roster spot open for a guy that might not even get a chance to run. 

Ray Rice - Ravens.  Not even counting his 2 game suspension to start this season, I just don't trust him anymore.  The Ravens used to have a very good running game and Rice was one of the best and also caught a huge amount of passes.  Last year, that all went away.  Many blame the bad Offensive Line.  I'm not sure they can go from almost worst to almost first in one off season.  I'm just going to let him be a problem for someone else. 

Any RB from the Panthers.  They have several guys that will put up good numbers but it will most likely be a different guy each week.  Not to mention a QB that will steal yards and TDs.  nah, not for me.

That's about it.  Nothing against any of these players, personally, but our Championship game came down to the last minute.  Points are hard to come by for anyone but especially those who aren't given a good enough chance.  I'll let other owners roll the dice on these guys.