Showing posts with label Fantasy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fantasy. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Fantasy Football 2014 Pre-view - Running Backs I will avoid! - Redraft League



     While everyone is arguing over who they think should be drafted in the top 10, I tend to look a little further down the list.  We can generally agree on who the studs are so instead of marking up my list with guys I want, I'll start marking off guys I DO NOT want.  A little research before hand will save you some headache and scrambling on draft day.  The first few rounds of most drafts are usually the quickest, by the time you get done crossing a name off your list, 2 other picks have come in.  Owners will have it set in their mind who they want first, even if it's a reach.  I will go into draft day knowing who I will not be drafting.  This post will focus on the Running Backs.

     Running Backs (RB) are huge assets to fantasy teams.  They score TDs, rack up lots of yardage and in some cases catch a lot of passes.  They can also be a huge disappointment.  Ever have one of your top picks leave a game early on because of injury?  Only to hand you a loss by just a few points that he would have surly landed you?  I usually won't hold a grudge but when this happens time and time again, I have to, at some point, tell my self, not only never again this season but never again in ANY season.  It doesn't have to be an injury.  It can be another running back on the same team that will steal carries and TDs.  I'm looking at you Buffalo!  I started this last season.  I went through my list and crossed off names that I wanted to avoid in the head spinning confusion that is Draft Day.  It helped me out a lot down the stretch, when talent starts getting scarce and you might reach for a name simply because you know who that guy is.  This list is nothing personal, they might have a good or even great season but either I have been burned or saw other owners get burned by these guys.  I am all including in this list guys that I just don't think will have a good year, based on team change or injury prone or just flat out not that good.

Zac Stacy - Rams.  He came in and had a pretty good run at things for the Rams.  But look at maybe why that was.  One of their main offensive players, Sam Bradford, was lost for the season with a knee injury.  They HAD to run the ball.  So they did.  Now, Bradford is back and healthy.  I just don't see them needing to run as much as they did last year.  He might have a decent year but I'm not willing to take a chance.

Doug Martin - Bucs.  He had a monster rookie season.  Then turned in a lot of bad games last year and he was getting injured.  Looking back, his big games were against just 2 or 3 teams, he was not very consistent.  The Bucs have upgraded their QB situation and have added more weapons on offense.  Plus, the coach came out and said they want to go to a committee at RB (not always but usually a death nail for RBs).  Having a better offence might open up running lanes for him, but what if they don't give him enough chances?  Not a gamble for me.

C.J. Spiller - Bills.  He always starts every season with a huge upside.  Coaches say they want to give him the ball more, he's a huge play maker, he's all these things....but they also signed Fred Jackson to a new contract.  I would consider drafting Spiller, but Jackson is a big reason why I won't.  Sure, he's gets his share of chances and he does have good games but it's hard to argue when Jackson comes in and scores 2 TDs and has 100 yards when Spiller only gets a few runs and catches a couple passes.  They seam to go back and forth a lot.  I can't draft a guy knowing it's 50/50 each week. 

Any RB from New England because of Belichick.  I can't loose points for a full game just because of one mistake. 

Any RB from New Orleans.  When you have Drew Brees, running is an after thought.  Any one of 3 guys could be their starter on any given week.  I won't keep a roster spot open for a guy that might not even get a chance to run. 

Ray Rice - Ravens.  Not even counting his 2 game suspension to start this season, I just don't trust him anymore.  The Ravens used to have a very good running game and Rice was one of the best and also caught a huge amount of passes.  Last year, that all went away.  Many blame the bad Offensive Line.  I'm not sure they can go from almost worst to almost first in one off season.  I'm just going to let him be a problem for someone else. 

Any RB from the Panthers.  They have several guys that will put up good numbers but it will most likely be a different guy each week.  Not to mention a QB that will steal yards and TDs.  nah, not for me.

That's about it.  Nothing against any of these players, personally, but our Championship game came down to the last minute.  Points are hard to come by for anyone but especially those who aren't given a good enough chance.  I'll let other owners roll the dice on these guys. 



Saturday, April 26, 2014

NFL Fantasy Football Keeper League Offseason Player Moves

To keep or not to keep, that is the question. 

I will have to narrow my team down to 7 before our draft.  Right before the season ends, there is a mad scramble to pick up players that might end up starting or signed to a better team with more fantasy implications.  I have a couple of those players on my roster right now.  The problem is, I also have several well established vets that I would love to hold on to.  Here is a list of who I currently have on roster:

Matthew Stafford - QB Lions
Ben Roethlisberger - QB Steelers

DeMarco Murray - RB Cowboys
Marshawn Lynch - RB Seahawks
Robert Turbin - RB Seahawks
Danny Woodhead - RB Chargers
Donald Brown - RB Chargers
Chris Ivory - RB Jets

Antonio Brown - WR Steelers
Alshon Jeffery - WR Bears
Corderrelle Patterson - WR Vikings
Pierre Garcon  - WR Redskins
Randall Cobb - WR Packers

Vernon Davis - TE 49ers

Steven Hauschka - K Seahawks

Browns - DEF
Steelers - DEF


I traded away Rodgers for Stafford as I was making a run into the playoffs.  I loved having Rodgers, he was very consistent.  The Lions throw the ball a ton and Stafford is a young player that has huge amount of potential.  Unless something major happens this off season, I'll be keeping Stafford.

I love my stable of WRs.  I drafted Patterson late and I never started him (based on my other WRs having such great seasons).  He really started to play well in the last half of the season as the Vikings gave him the ball more and more.  I really want to hold on to him and give him a chance.  I made a trade for Cobb.  When he's healthy, he can be great.  Brown and Jeffery blew up and posted great numbers for me.  Out of these players, I think Garcon is the one I might have to let go or trade. 

I have 3 RBs that I would like to keep, but it will probably end up just being 2.  Most likely I'll stick with Lynch and Murray.  If I had room I would probably keep Woodhead also, although now that Brown has signed with the Chargers, someone will score less.  Turbin was a late season pick up to back up Lynch.  Ivory was barely a starter for me and now with Chris Johnson in the mix, he won't be on my roster come draft day. 

Not sure how other keep leagues work, but our first draft pick is based on how many players we keep.  If I keep my limit of 7, my first pick will be in round 8.  Of course, I can "go all in" if I wanted to and try to get a few high draft picks, but I have yet to try that.  Kickers and Defense will get dropped first, along with Davis.  Some easy choices at RB and some tough ones at WR.  Looks like my team will be based out of the NFC North. 

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Fantasy Football Week 8,9,10 Review

Redraft League - Standard Scoring
Results from the last 3 weeks: 3-0
Power Ranking: 2nd

     Had a great  few weeks.  Have won my last 4 games and moved up to 2nd over all.  My main running backs have been having really good games.  With Aaron Rodgers being out for a while, RB Lacey has been getting the ball a ton and racking up the yards.  I get RB Charles back from bye week this week.  Have not had any big injuries either.  Will probably keep RB Spiller and MJD on the bench for now.  My other players are just playing better and being more consistent.

     WR Hilton will probably be a starter for me every week now.  Injuries to other Colts WR have pushed him more into the spotlight.  He was being way underused this season before the last couple of games.  Having QB Luck starting also helps me here as  I can double dip on the TDs.  I picked up TE Reed from the Redskins a few weeks ago.  I was a little leery of starting 2 pass catchers from the same team every week but WR Garcon and Reed have been doing great.  The Redskins fall behind in games a lot so they have to pass a bunch to stay in it. 

     I made 2 changes that I think will help me going forward towards the play offs.  I picked up the Carolina DEF.  They are a good team there.  I dropped my kicker and picked up the Jets kicker.  The Jets are actually doing OK right now.  Since they are now coming off their bye week, as long as he does good, I'll keep him as my guy. 


Keeper League - PPR Scoring
Results from the last 3 weeks: 2-1
Power Ranking: 3rd


      Ouch.  Had my first loosing streak of the season.  Lost 3 in a row until last week.  My number 1 guy, QB Rodgers got injured on the first drive of the Chicago game.  I was only able to get 3 points out of him that game and he has been out since.  Not sure when he will make it back, really hoping he comes back soon and gets back up to game speed before the play offs start.  I picked up QB Keenum the Texans.  He has had some really good games the last few weeks.  He helped me win last week.  The final score was 147.36-144.77.  Pretty close. 

     RB Lynch has been in full on Beast Mode the last few weeks.  He is the second highest scoring player on my roster.  I will have Murray on bye this week.  I'm starting RB Ivory in his place.  Not super confident, he seems to have good games when he's on the bench and when I start him I'd be lucky to scrape together a few points.  He has been playing better so hopefully he can help me make a play off run.  I also picked up RB Donald Brown.  Looks like sooner or later the Colts will give him more playing time as Richardson has been terrible.  Brown has been scoring so I'll keep him on the bench for depth and hope he gets more touches as the season winds down.

     My WRs have still been doing good.  I even made a trade last week.  I traded away Gordon to get Cobb.  I have several good WRs so I could afford to trade away one.  I know Cobb is on IR right now and due to some of our League Rules that cannot be changed until next year I won't be able to start him at all this season, even if he plays.  This trade was more looking to the future.  Cobb is a young player and on his way up.  I had WR Nelson last year and it works out to have a good WR from the Packers as long as I have Rodgers as my QB.  I wanted to grab Cobb in the draft but it didn't work out.  We also swapped draft picks, I moved up from round 10 to round 8, from a team that right now only has 2 wins, so I should make out good in this deal.

    

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Fantasy Football Week 6 Review Dynasty PPR and Standard Redraft Leagues

Standard Scoring - Redraft League

Result - Tie
Score 42-42
Record 2-3-1
Power Rank - 7th

     What is this? Soccer?  I guess I'd rather have a tie than a loss.  This was a really close game.  It all came down to the Monday night game.  I had QB Luck and he had RB Mathews.  I was up by 4 heading into the game, I figured I'd pick up a couple of TDs and sail to an easy win.  Well, the San Diego D stepped up and shut down the Colts.  I got 1 stinkin' point for Luck.  Mathews went on to run up 100 rushing yards which is good for 5 points in this league. 

     Had a couple of guys not produce very much.  I started WR Jeffery and he came away with 1 point.  Garcon and Finley each put up 3.  I started RB Bell this week and he only put up 2.  I was hoping for a TD.  No big injuries this week.  Sounds like RB Charles is on pace for a huge work load this season.  I hope his legs can handle it. 

     I did leave a few points on the bench this week.  Looking back at the match ups that I had, I would have started the same guys though.  RB MJD decided to play and score some points this week, putting up 9.  RB Lacey is starting to be more consistent, he put up 6, all based on yardage.  I'll keep an eye on his match ups for sure. 

     I am the underdog again this week.  My opponent has a strong team.  I'm hoping for a shoot out between the Broncos and Colts, I need some TDs from Luck and I'm going to start WR Hilton this week too.  I'm also starting RB Lacey.  I think with the Packers losing a couple more WRs, TE Finley will see more catches and I hope they will run like they did last week. 




Keeper League - PPR Scoring

Result - Win
Score 129.70-94.50
Record 5-1
Power Rank - 1st

     Down Goes Murray!  Probably the biggest news for my team this week.  RB Murray has a sprained knee and could miss a few games.  I'd rather him not play for a few weeks and get healthy than try and play each week, because if he plays, I'll have to start him and being hurt like that.....  I didn't grab any handcuff for Murray.  Most of the other guys are a little banged up also.  I knew this would pop up sooner or later but if not for Murray, I'm not sold on the other Cowboys RBs. 

     SO, I did win this week.  5th in a row.  Longest winning streak I've had in this league.  I put up 129 and I left quite a few points on my bench too.  I really only had 2 players not have good games.  WR Jeffery and my D - the Browns.  I have the Titans D but I went with the Browns since the Titans were playing in Seattle.  Browns scored 3.5 Titans put up 16.  Biggest surprise was Vernon Davis.  He put up 34 in this league.  Not a big deal since I won but knowing that he has had great games when he's healthy give me more wiggle room in the future. WR Jeffery will probably get benched this week for me.  He put up 4.7 this week and when I got guys on my bench putting up double digits almost every week, I can't afford to keep him in there.  Of course, I'll hang on to him, I won't release him after 1 bad game.  We get so many points from any position that can catch, you can never have to many good receivers on your team.

     Just an OK game from QB Rodgers.  The last few weeks he has been winning but not having really good fantasy games like he usually does.  I'm hoping he turns it around soon.  Had a great game from RB Lynch.  He put up 29.50.  He's been doing good all season but it was really nice to see him have a game like this.  WR Blackmon didn't have a TD in his game but with so many targets, he made a lot of catches and put up lots of yards for 26 points.  I've been watching players that get the most "looks" or "targets" every week.  Jeffery has been getting a ton the last few weeks, Blackmon leads his team and Garcon and Gordon are pretty close.  Aside from Jeffery, all these guys are WR1s.  And I still have WR Brown, he was on the bench this week and put up 14. 

     I feel good about this win but I don't want to celebrate too much.  I know things happen fast and I could easily lose several games and miss out on the play offs.  My goal, as is every one's goal, is to win it all.  I have a real shot at, not only my division but making some real noise in the play offs.  I can't get ahead of my self.  Where can I get better?  I have to look at RBs.  I have 3 guys that I can start just about every week.  I'm not panicking, I will start RB Woodhead in place of RB Murray this week.  I'll just have to dig around and see if I can find a guy hiding on the waiver wire, waiting to get picked and have a chance at fantasy football greatness. 

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Fantasy Football Week 3 Review

Fantasy Football Week 3 Review

Redraft League - Standard Scoring

Result - Win

Score 61-29

Record - 2-1

Power Ranking - 3rd

     Had a good week.  This team had a few tough match ups but it just worked out that the other team had even worse games.  I put up 0's from 3 different players.  It's hard to imagine winning watching that unfold.  A couple of my bigger names got hurt or didn't play well.  Spiller had 0, Finley put up 0 but he got knocked out of the game on his first target of the game.  Hilton also had 0 in a tough game against the 49ers.  The Colts ran the ball a lot so I didn't get much out of Luck either, but at least he ran in a TD. 

     I had great games from Charles and Brown.  Charles has been a great RB for me so far this year.  Brown, I drafted him with some high expectations and it is now starting to pay off.  14 from Charles and 21 from Brown. 

     Bye weeks start now.  I only have 1 guy on a bye and it's Finley.  He probably wouldn't play anyways but had to mine the waiver wire for a TE.  We'll see how that ends up.  Other than the injury to Finley, I think I still look good heading into the next few weeks.  Lacey did not play this week but should be fine after the bye.   I benched MJD this week as he was playing against the Seahawks and of course he has a good game and scores a TD.  He is hurt and was playing one of the best Defenses in the NFL so I stand by that benching.  Sounds like the Steelers will be able to play Bell soon.  That will give me more depth at RB and if he starts doing well I can add him to my normal starting rotation. 

     Plus, I have Josh Gordon that I can start now also.  I drafted Gordon knowing he would be good once he came back from suspension but I thought it might take a few games.  He put up 14 points this week.  I cannot expect that kind of production every week, especially from the Browns but if he can stay consistent that will help me out as the season progresses.

Keeper League - PPR Scoring

Result - Win

Score   118.69 - 110.23

Record 2-1

Power Ranking - 2nd

     Talk about a nail biting come from behind game!  I went into the Sunday night game down by about 28 points.  Other team was done for the week and sitting with a pretty comfortable lead.  My last player, Brown has been good but not great so I was expecting a loss.  Brown went off and scored my 36.26 points.  Enough to come from behind and win.  I needed those points after some bad games earlier in the day.  Rodgers played well, but only scored 17.  Lynch had a good game but it was almost like a preseason game for the Seahawks as they started pulling out their starters in the 3rd quarter.  Not much from Mendenhall, 4.6.  I started Marlon Brown in place of Vernon David this week and he only got 1.6.  Davis did not play.  I probably won't start Marlin again and might even look to drop him soon.  Also had a huge day from Murray 27.8 points.  (side note - DeShawn Jackson put up 7.7, I hope this trade keeps working out for me)

     So, I won but didn't have the best game and not nearly as good as I could have had.  You have to make moves to stay ahead of the curve but I made a few that I would have liked to have back.  I should have blown this other team out of the water.  Biggest regret was dropping the Carolina defense for the Bills.  My main reason for that was Panthers were playing the Giants and even though the Giants are not very good they have been throwing for a ton of yards and in this league, that can kill a defense in scoring.  I figured the Bills playing the Jets, I'd be good.  The Giants picked a heck of a time to suck the most.  Panthers D put up 32 points while I got 2.5 from the Bills. 

     I've always liked the Seahawks kicker and I was able to pick him up this week.  I did have the 49ers kicker so dropping him was good as he only kicked 1 extra point this week.  I'll probably hang on to Hauschka for a while, at least until his bye week.  I did pick up Danny Woodhead.  I like that he catches a lot of passes.  He put up 10 points last week.  Mendenhall is not a sure fire every week start and having Woodhead give me a little wiggle room to play matchups a bit.  I'll start him this week. 

     I'm starting Sam Bradford this week in place of Rodgers (bye week).  I know he doesn't have a great match up against the 49ers but he has been out scoring his projections every week.  Plus, the 49er defense is not what it used to be.  Might be a sneaky start.  I drafted Josh Gordon in this league also.  He put up 27.8 in this league.  He starts this week too. 

     Chris Ivory is hurt again.  His back up went out and ran for over 150 yards.  I'll hang on to him but I don't have too much confidence he will be a starter for me.  I'm still hanging on to Patterson also.  He is playing well and I think he will only get more and more playing time.  He is getting some good points since he also returns kicks, which we get points for return yardage.  As soon as he starts scoring on a more consistent basis I'll plug him in.  My hope is that I'll end up with more starting WRs that I can handle and I can make a few more trades. 

     I'm still the scoring leader in this league, not by much, but still.  My win this week was against a division opponent so that will factor in down the line.  Right now my team is ranked 2nd over all.  Feels good but at the same time, almost undeserved.  But, maybe every owner goes through this, even with a team winning, still having doubts about who to start, drops and adds and all of it.  I'm playing the lowest ranked team in our league this week.  If I can beat him I'll brag a little but you never know.  Sometimes it's the ones you least expect......

Thursday, September 19, 2013

Fantasy Football Week 2 Update

Fantasy Football Week 2 Updates

Redraft League - Standard Scoring

Result - Win

Record 1-1

Currently ranked 5th overall

     Won 65-59.  Not a blow out but enough for my first win of the year.   Only scored 3 TDs so I got most of my points from yardage.  Good enough for this week but do not want to win like this every week.  My RBs are starting to wake up a little bit.  Except for MJD - now he is dealing with an injury and he is facing the Seattle Seahawks this week, in Seattle.  Yeah, he's taking a seat on the bench this week. 

     Had some good games from my WRs and Kicker.  Kicking points don't seem like a game changer but they were for me this week with 12 pints.  Garcon started his game slow but once the Packers built a huge lead and started to relax on defense a little, he was able to grab a bunch of garbage time yards and even a TD.  He gets a start every week and he will only get better as Griffin starts to get his leg back in shape and he starts playing better. 

     My Draft of Josh Gordon will, I hope, start paying off now that he is all done with the 2 game suspension.  Now that Trent Richardson has been traded away, that will leave Gordon as one of the only big play makers on the team.  I'm hoping he will get the ball a lot.  Eddie Lacey left the game with a head injury, doesn't seem as bad as it looked.  I have yet to start him but his games are getting better and if MJD doesn't start playing better I will have to make a swap.  Going to start T.Y. Hilton this week.  Coaches in Indy are making plays for him and already having Luck as my starting QB, I'm hoping for quite a few double dip TD games.

      I have a tough match up this week.  Opponent has Brady, Cruz and Lynch as his heavy hitters.  My guys will have their work cut out for them this week.  I have some good match ups this week, only Luck against SF Defense is sketchy. 


Keeper League - PPR Scoring

Result - Win

Record 1-1

Currently ranked 4th overall

     I've been waiting for a game like this one.  Had the highest point total in the league by far.  Won 171.68 - 140.55.  Had some really great games for my big guys.  Rodgers put up 46.50.  Even my RBs, which by this league's standards are second tier at best, had some good games.  My main RB, Lynch had a great game in a tough match up, putting up 33 points. 

     My lowest point totals came from my 49er guys, Davis and my kicker, Dawson.  I was OK with that as they were playing the Hawks and I still got my win.  Had another great game from Jackson, he put up 29.80.  My WRs are pretty strong and I have a few good ones.  Still not all that happy with my RBs, I even dropped Mark Ingram.  I grabbed Woodhead off the waiver wire.  He won't be a starter on my team now but I'm hoping his role in the Chargers offense will grow as he puts up better numbers for them. 

     I received a trade offer this week.  I was offered Demarco Murray for DeShawn Jackson.  My first reaction was, NO!  Did you see that game this week?  BUT.....my WRs are my strongest group and RBs are my weakest.  We went back and forth a few times but I decided to make this trade, we also swapped a few draft picks for next season.  I need another RB that can put up some points, ANY points.  While Murray isn't a big game changer and he does have injury risk, he does play on a team that can and does score points and he can catch, a big plus.  Giving up DeShawn wasn't an easy choice.  Knowing that I have several WRs on my team that can have good games and DeShawn comes with his own injury risks as well.  I watched some of the Eagles game this week and both Jackson and Vick took big shots that knocked them out for a few plays.  Eagles are playing very fast paced and I'm not too confident Jackson OR Vick will last.  I figured I better take a chance now and get a RB that can help me in the long run.  We will have to wait and see how this trade works out but Murray is in my starting line up this week. 

     Facing one of the top teams in the league this week.  I think if I have some good games I can pull this one off.  My guys have some really good match ups and I can see a few shoot out type games happening.  Lynch at home against Jacksonville should be money.  I decided to drop my defense and kicker this week and pick up a couple that have some better matchups.  Not sure if I will do this every week or not, but if it works out this week I will at least entertain the idea.